Data Analysis: Term Structure of Interest Rates

Data Analysis: Term Structure of Interest Rates

The subject of this exercise is learning about interest rate data and data sources. In chapter 2 you learned about the term structure of interest rates, the yield curve for securities with different maturities (but similar risk profiles).  In this exercise, you retrieve data on yield curves, observe the trends in rates and consider the slope of the curve.

This assignment requires you to research official data on interest rates, chart the data and analyze the results.  The analysis may require you to perform additional calculations on the data, or create comparisons of individual data series on the data, based on your objectives of your analysis.

Clearly state the objectives of the data analysis at the beginning of the paper.  Do not stray away from your objectives and later present data in an unrelated fashion.

Analysis

Apply the learning in the 2 weeks of the course to see what the data demonstrates.  Here are some examples you can consider.

  1. Have US interest rates become negative?
    1. How close have US rates approached zero?
  2. Have rates reversed themselves?
  3. What do the spreads between Treasuries and Corporates, or between High Quality corporate rates and Baa rates inform us about risk premiums, risk premium, expectations of inflation …?
  4. Covid experience: Focus on the 2020 detailed data to see the behavior of rates in 2020, especially first and second quarter, versus the latest data?
  5. Focus on the behavior of rates and spreads in 2007/2008 during the great recession?

Samples of data series you can work with.

  • Trends in a specific interest rates (and/or spreads)
  • Trends in a interest rates (and/or spreads) based on maturity within the same credit risk category,
  • Trends in rate spreads across credit risk categories
  • Trends in the data within a specific time period.

When analyzing trends, make sure to include the recession of 2007/08 and the current situation.  Therefore, consider the range 2005 to present. Depending on your analysis you can consider monthly and quarterly data that helps you support the analysis.

Sources of Data

The best source for interest rate data is Federal Reserve Economic Data Series (FRED) published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve. As a start, explore the data series available on FRED.

Treasury Rates:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?nasw=0&st=Treasury%20Yields&t=usa&ob=sr&od=desc&types=gen;geo.  Set/filter Geographies to United States.

Corporate rates using Moody’s ratings:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?nasw=0&st=Treasury%20Yields&t=yield%3Bcorporate&ob=sr&od=desc&types=gen

FRED Interface

You can download the data by selecting Download button on the right and selecting Excel for the data. Or you can edit the graph to by selecting

Set the beginning date for data range to 2000-01-01.  Next, click on Edit Graph. “Modify Frequency to Monthly.  Finally, now click on Download and select and Excel data.

 

GRADING RUBRIC

%

 

  EXCELLENT

90+

GOOD

80-89

NEEDS IMPROVMENT

70 -79

NEEDS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT

>70 

 

 

30%

Application of Academic resources and learned concept Clearly states the objectives of the analysis and follows through by presenting insightful and thorough investigation of the data.

The data presented is well suited for the analysis. Appropriately utilizes relevant learned concepts in conducting the analysis.

 

States the objectives of the analysis; however, the analysis does not always provide sufficient and insightful analysis.

The data presented is not always consistent with the objectives of the analysis.

Does not consistently apply relevant learned concepts in conducting the analysis.

Presents a limited application and analysis of relevant concepts objectives.  Often misapplies  or omits application of relevant learned concepts in the analysis Presents a rudimentary application and analysis of relevant concepts.  Often ignores important concepts applicable to the case.
30% Data Research

 

.

 

Uses appropriate data to support the analysis.

Willing to edit and combine data in support of the analysis.  .

Uses some data and logical arguments for answering each question.

Includes some calculations and evidence in support of the analysis.

Uses limited data and logical arguments in support in answering each question.

Includes limited data in support of the arguments.

Uses no data , spurious arguments and anecdotal references for evaluating the marketing issues
20% Data Presentation:

Excel capabilities

And/or use of data editing capabilities within the data source application.

Excellent Data presentations.

Demonstrates superior Excel application in charting and tabulation. Uses appropriately data editing tools within the data source application

Organizes and presents data in chart and tabular format for maximum effect.

Demonstrates mediocre capabilities in the use of Excel application in charting and tabulation.

Also, often does not fully utilize the editing tools within the data source application.

Data is not consistently well presented.

Data presentation is unexceptional

Limited use of Excel capabilities or data editing capabilities within the source application.

Often uses only downloaded charts

Data presentation is poor.

Only uses downloaded charts.

20% Writing Mechanics, References and Formatting Guidelines Demonstrates clarity, conciseness and correctness; formatting is appropriate and writing is free of grammar and spelling errors. Individual contributions to the paper are seamlessly organized.

Uses quality data sources and sufficient numbers of quality references.

APA style format is applied

The paper is consistent with the guidelines of the assignment.

Occasional grammar or spelling errors, but still offers a clear presentation of ideas; Individual contributions to the paper are not always well organized through proper transitions.

Sometimes uses non-academic sources.  APA style format is inconsistently followed.

The paper is consistent with some, but not all of guidelines of the assignment.

Frequent grammar / spelling errors. Individual contributions to the paper are somewhat adequately organized, although limited effort is made to  properly transition individual sections

Several reference sources are non-academic.  APA style is inadequately applied

Writing contains several grammatical errors; inadequate organization of the material. Individual contributions to the paper are not transitioned to create a holistic paper.

APA style is not applied appropriately.  Limited references. Several reference sources are non-academic.

 

 

 

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