Decision Analysis assignment

Jim Kelly a corporate raider has acquired a textile company and is contemplating the future of one of its major plants located in Downtown Silver Spring Maryland. Three alternatives decisions are being considered: (1) expand the plant and produce and produce lightweight durable materials for possible sales to the military a market with little foreign competition; (2) maintain the status quo at the plant continuing production of textile goods that are subject to heavy foreign competition; or (3) sell the plant now. If one of the first two alternatives is chosen the plant will still be sold at the end of a year. The amount of profit that could be earned by selling the plant in a year depends on foreign market conditions including the status of a trade embargo bill in Congress. The following payoff table describes this decision. State of Nature Decision Good Foreign Competitive Conditions Poor Foreign Competitive Condition Expand \$900000 \$600000 Maintain status quo 1400000 -150000 Sell now 420000 420000 Requirements: just answer the Case Study 1 | .doc file Determine the best decision by using the following criteria: Assume that it is now possible to estimate a probability of 0.70 that good foreign competitive conditions will exist and a probability of 0.30 that poor conditions will exist. Determine the best decision by using expected value and expected opportunity loss. Compute the expected value of perfect information Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes. Maximax Maximin Minimax regret Huwicz (α = 0.3) Equal likelihood ‘

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